Across the United States, various social distancing measures were implemented to control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the effectiveness of such measures for specific regions with varying population demographic characteristics and different levels of adherence to social distancing is uncertain. The purpose of this study from HIP Investigator Dr. Brian Patterson was to determine the effect of social distancing measures in unique regions.
The study presents an agent-based model that represents the social network and interactions among persons in a region, considering local population demographic characteristics, population density, the daily number of contacts in the absence of social distancing measures, and adherence to social distancing measures. This model, the COVID-19 Agent-based simulation Model (COVAM), allows transmission from asymptomatic patients, accounts for imported cases during the early days of the pandemic, and considers the possibility that some patients with mild to moderate symptoms never receive confirmatory testing for COVID-19.
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